Satoshi Guesser

The Satoshi Slot Machine

The creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, mined a lot of Bitcoin early on that has been lost to old wallets. If you knew the private keys, you could recover his bitcoin. You can actually guess at them, but your odds are pretty terrible (1 in 5.27 × 10^72).

This webapp does just that and frames it as a 'slot machine' type game (for added amusement). Claude coded it using Vite and pushed it to Cloudflare.

Again, it's all 100% real math in the browser; it's just poor odds. For scale: it is about 10 million times harder than picking one specific atom from the entire observable universe. At one spin per millisecond (faster than this app runs), you'd expect a hit roughly once per 1.7 × 10^62 years or about 10^52 times the current age of the universe.

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Security Audit

• The Good News: It's clean. No exfiltration, no beacons, no third-party calls, and only fetches same-origin static .bin files. The cryptography uses the real @noble /secp256k1 pipeline (audited, dependency-free), verified against the Bitcoin wiki test vectors and the genesis block hash160. NPM audit is clean, and 14/14 tests pass. If you ever did hit, the WIF it spits out would genuinely sweep the wallet.

• The Bad News: I had to run the numbers:

• 21,954 wallets / 2^256 keyspace = 1 in 5.27 x 10^72 per spin
• My laptop benched ~2,142 spins/sec
• Expected Time to Hit: ~7.8 x 10^61 years at full tilt
• Age of the Universe: ~1.4 x 10^10 years

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The Verdict

We're talking roughly 10^51 times the current age of the universe to expect one hit. The Sun will engulf the Earth (~5 billion years) about 10^52 times before you'd statistically land one. Every human on Earth (8 billion people) spinning continuously since the Big Bang would still be about 10^42 spins short.

10/10 vibes though. It's a beautiful little physics demo of how comically large 2^256 actually is. The heat death of the universe is the real house edge.